Be a hero

2024 has arrived, the start of a period of dramatic change. From now on, for the next few years, the industry will be presented with many opportunities and challenges. This year is reminiscent of 1926 when Monrovia Nurseries started growing plants in containers to sell to the public. That decision caused turmoil as well as opportunities. Then in the early 1970s the pot debate became the topic of change. Many growers were skeptics of these changes and took many years to catch up. Some never did. This was another pivotal year when we debated whether we should be growing plants in pots with loam-based compost or loam-less compost. Should peat be an ingredient and were plastic pots better than clay pots? The years 1926 and 1970 were critically important turning points for the industry that led to major structural changes.

That brings us to 2024, another important year and possible pivotal point for the industry.

This time around the debate will be just as heated except the topics have changed.

The debate now includes:

• Sustainability and being seen as sustainable by the consumer
• How do we work with central government when they want to manage climate change and our industry.
• Al: the new communicator.
• Carbon farming and its relevance to nurseries
• Robotics in the nursery and how it will reduce our labor input.

The subjects we need to grasp are more than one person’s expertise, we will need a team of experts, some of whom will be new to our industry.

On Feb. 8, Manor View Farm and Perennial Farm celebrated its 25th Educational Seminar and invited me back to speak at the celebration. I first spoke at the seminar in 1998 when coffee sold for $1.86 and container plants were selling for $20. My next session was in 2008 when that same coffee was $2.45 and the same plant was selling for $22.88. At that session people did not believe me when I mentioned that the $5 coffee was on the way. Now in 2024, $5 coffee indeed has arrived and the same container plant is selling for $30.52.

What other changes are we to expect?

1. Communication is changing

I was raised in an industry where the propagator put roots on the plant, it then often went to a nursery who grew the plant, it then passed on to a distributor who send it to a garden center who then sold it to the consumer who had no idea on the journey the plant had taken and who actually grew it. Many consumers assumed that the plants had been grown by the garden center.

That is starting to change and it started with farmers who realized they were not being recognized as the people who grew the food. They have started to put their faces to the food and promote themselves as the grower. I see this starting in nurseries with growers starting to promote themselves as the producer and telling the story of the plant. Hence the communication chain is getting shorter. A reflection of the past.

2. Tree growers are tomorrows heroes

Climate change is visible to everyone and we need to adapt to climate change and come up with solutions. Planting more trees is one of the answers.

In the U.K. they have accepted that trees play a role in greenhouse gas removal and that the country should plant around 30,000 hectares of woodland a year until 2050. Growers of trees are the new heroes. This is a new opportunity for tree growers to take the initiative in developing a market that can help save the world.

I expect more growers moving into the tree raising market and trees being promoted as air cleaners, especially for urban environments.

3. Sustainability is the key

In 2022, I was involved with Sid Raisch in organizing the Global Garden Retail Conference. The keynote speaker was Anna Ball and one comment stood out, “Plants are probably the only product sold that are completely sustainable.”

Our industry should be leading the sustainable journey, but other businesses and industries have taken the marketing opportunity. These include Dulux Paints, a company that is helping schools in Indonesia paint their buildings yellow to help deter the increase in mosquitoes due to climate change, or Dill and Kamille in Holland, a company that is using returned Christmas trees to make compost under its “Holy Soul” brand, which it sells to customers.

We are about to see the changeover to plantable, sustainable containers, recycled waste products being made into things of value, soil builders rather than plant feeders and other sustainable products. We also need to educate our customers on sustainable gardening and promote our own sustainable attributes as businesses. This is an opportunity for both wholesale growers and garden retailers to lead the sustainable initiative.

4. Gen Z Focused

Many of us built our business on being Baby Boomer focused. The Baby Boomer has now moved on and we need to be Gen Z focused. Many papers and articles have been written recently on this issue. What we do need to focus on is what is their view of gardens and gardening. Baby Boomers looked at gardening and caring for plants as the experience. Now the experience is about enjoyment in the garden. The Wellbeing Garden will become more important as we move through the decade as people look at the garden as a place where they can look after their own health. Gen Z as plant parents will spend more money on plant nurturing if we get the message right.

5. Nursery Robots

Wholesale nurseries are starting to replace people with robots. Robots first made their impact in 2015 when IPPS visited nurseries in the Eastern U.S. and were exposed to robots spacing plants in container nurseries. Robots are now being looked at to replace people in a whole range of tasks, from sowing seeds to potting plants to caring for the product.

I realize there will be skeptics, but I suggest they again look at farming. Milking cows must be one of the worst tasks in farming with the farmer having to commit to early morning and late nights milking cows twice a day. My local farm, Bannister Downs, has a robotic dairy. The cows decide when they want to be miked and it is all done robotically. They do not see a farmer. Their milk then goes in a 100% sustainable bottle developed by Ecolean from Sweden. The future nursery could look like my local dairy.

6. Niche garden retailers

Independent garden centers are only used by 10-12% of young consumers (Ref: Axiom Marketing Insights 2024 Gardening Outlook Survey) yet, they still play an important part in the local community. They are and should be places of excellence. Moving forward I believe it is important they are seen as being local experts that know local gardening. They will become niche experts and the range of products sold will narrow as they become more specialized and focus on perishable products. Fewer customers can result in higher spending, and this trend is being seen in many countries.

7. AI rules in marketing

I left Al to the end, but you could argue I should have placed it first. Al marketing is when you use artificial intelligence to gather insights of your customers to enable you to produce better marketing content. It will probably, in 2024, be the biggest change we will see in the industry.

In my own business we now write our marketing literature and put it through an Al program to look at improvements in our communications to our target customers. When producing a power point, I do the same.

I will be honest, in my business we are using younger minds to advise on how we need to communicate with our target consumer. It is the same in your business.

Have you got the right minds developing the marketing for your business?

The big challenge

The big challenge for 2024 is so much is changing and changing rapidly.

Keeping up is the real challenge, but it will be a fun journey. We are in one of the industries of the future.

Reach John Stanley at john@johnstanley.com.au.