Red, white, blue and green

As Americans head to the polls Nov. 6, they’ve got a lot of things to consider, from personal issues to business concerns.

For nurseries and other green-industry businesses, this year’s election will have an impact on things like immigration, healthcare and regulatory rules.

In August, Nursery Management polled readers to get their take on the 2012 presidential election. See how your opinion stacks up against your peers.

We also heard from industry experts about they’re concerns regarding the candidate’s plans and lawmakers’ actions.

Remember: All votes matter and all votes count. Exercise your right to vote Nov. 6, and let your employees do the same.

2012 Election Outlook

What small business owners can expect over the next four years depending how the election goes

by Jason Stahl
 

There are some who might say that the U.S. government has launched an all-out assault on small businesses over the last few years. They might also go so far as to say that the entrepreneurial spirit that once was a hallmark of America has been squashed and discouraged.

Some small business owners blame the Obama administration for their woes, while others say their troubles are merely the result of one of the worst economic droughts in history.

Those in the “blame Obama” camp can look forward to a possible changing of the guard once the 2012 presidential election results are in. But then again, there might be no change at all. What can small businesses expect over the next four years if Obama stays in office or if Republican Mitt Romney takes over the office?

Bob Redding has a few predictions based on his long career as a lobbyist in Washington, D.C. He believes that Congress will stay Republican after the election (even though he believes the difference in the number of Republicans versus Democrats might get a little smaller), and if Romney is elected, he will support the pro-small-business tax agenda Congress will push. Redding feels this will have a better chance of becoming law. But there also could be a potential roadblock in the Senate.
 

“Even with a Republican Senate, you can’t move legislation without 60 Republican Senators,” he says. “It takes a full 60 votes to stop the debate. If you had closer to 60, you would have some Democrats flip over and support the Republican majority on the small business tax issue. But you would need the full 60 votes, and if you have that and the legislation gets to [Romney], I believe he would sign it.”

If Obama gets re-elected, Redding says it would depend on the tax reform package that the House and Senate would send him as to whether he would sign it.

“The barriers to date have prevented it from moving out of the House, let alone the House and Senate,” Redding says. “So I don’t see that coming together, even under another four years.”

Redding believes that under a Romney administration, people would see a less aggressive OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) on some of the issues that particular federal agency has been looking at. Under a second term with Obama, he believes people would see more worker safety initiatives and an agenda even more heightened than it has been in the last four years.
 

Most people feel that the majority of businesses favor a less aggressive EPA, and they would be right. But believe it or not, some industries favor a more aggressive EPA, especially if it means putting less qualified competitors out of business due to compliance issues. And those industries feel that, under the Obama administration to date, the EPA has not been as aggressive as it should be. Under Romney, Redding feels that non-aggressive EPA stance would continue.

Regarding the health care initiative that became law, Redding says that he feels most small business owners did not support it and would like to see some provisions repealed. But he said even if Romney is elected, repealing those provisions will be a difficult task.

“You’re still going to need 60 votes in the Senate to repeal significant portions of the health care law, and that likely won’t happen this next election even if the Republicans take the Senate,” says Redding. “The goal now is to get 51. If Obama wins and you have a Republican Senate, you don’t want it to be a 50-50 tie because the Democratic vice president would break the tie. Getting up to 58 to 59 will be hard to do.”

Redding feels that the thing that has caused the biggest hurt to the Obama administration is the little amount of tax reform that has been undertaken.

“We haven’t seen any help in that area to amount to anything,” he says.

Therefore, he feels a change in administrations could impact the economy in a positive way if that administration can move certain laws forward.
 

Molly Brogan, vice president of public affairs for the National Small Business Association (NSBA), sees things fairly similarly to the way Redding sees them as far as what might be in store for small businesses over the next four years if a new administration comes in. Like Redding, she sees taxes as a major issue in the next election.

“Taxes are a growing concern as far as the financial burden they carry and the complexity they add to running a small business,” says Brogan, citing a 2012 survey the NSBA conducted before tax day that indicated that the administrative burden of taxes is outpacing the financial burden. “I wouldn’t say either Republicans or Democrats have an overwhelming market share in terms of trying to ease the complexity of taxes. That said, Republicans typically are in favor of lower taxes.”

Expanding on the Republican business viewpoint, she said that this party typically has a “get out of the way” mentality, favoring lower taxes and fewer regulations.

“Regulations can be very burdensome, particularly on the smallest businesses,” Brogan says.

Democrats, on the other hand, are more in favor of “problematic-type help” for small businesses, she says, such as ensuring access to capital is readily available.

“That’s good, but it’s an altogether different perspective than the Republicans have,” Brogan says.
 

Examining both Obama and Romney’s agendas, Brogan feels both have been shortsighted on taxes on small businesses. Romney, she says, has talked about reducing marginal rates and corporate rates, but if he wins, he will also need to focus on cutting individual rates for small businesses. The reason is because the majority (83 percent) of small businesses pay their taxes as “pass-through entities,” meaning they pay them as their own personal income. Therefore, they pay the individual tax rate, not the corporate rate.

“The way [Romney’s] tax structure is set up would actually give small businesses a slightly higher tax bracket than what most large corporations have,” says Brogan. “Both [Romney and Obama] have talked about reforming the tax system and simplifying it, and we think that’s good, but you can’t do one without the other without putting small businesses at a significant disadvantage.”

Brogan concedes that Romney has been pretty good with taxes, and there are select areas where Obama has been good, too, particularly R&D credits and expanding and increasing some of the expensing provisions to try to enhance the cash-in-hand that small businesses get to keep.

Health care is another huge issue for small businesses, and the candidates have very different platforms on this subject.

“Our No. 1 goal is to keep health care costs down, something we don’t think the Affordable Care Act will do,” she says. “That’s what has to happen. And I don’t know if we’ve seen significantly aggressive plans from either camp on how to keep costs down.”

As far as regulations go, Brogan feels Obama has been relatively outspoken on calling on his agencies to sort out the regulations they feel they can get rid of or streamline, which the NSBA thinks is positive. Romney, too, has talked about the need to ease regulations on businesses, so Brogan feels both he and Obama can offer positive things in this arena.

When it comes to the environment, there appears to be a general understanding that Democrats favor more stringent rules than Republicans. Brogan  feels that if Obama is reelected, there will continue to be more oversight of environmental initiatives.

“In terms of preventing exemptions, I think Democrats are certainly willing to do that, but there is less leeway under them in terms of getting any kind of small business exemption,” Brogan said.
 

Jason Stahl is a Cleveland-based freelance writer.

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