Viewpoint

Published October 25, 2011

Todd Davis

If you haven't heard, Texas and Oklahoma haven't gotten much rain lately – at all.

Across most of this region it's (best case) the worst drought in 50 years or (worst case) the most severe drought in history. And plants in the region are (best case) severely stressed or (worst case) the texture of corn flakes.

In some areas, it's estimated that 50 percent of the native tree canopy is dead. Drive the highways and you'll see mile after mile of brown, dead trees. And we're talking species normally impervious to drought such as cedar elms and red oaks.

On top of that, wildfires have torched almost 4 million acres in Texas alone, causing the loss of almost 3,000 homes.

Even in irrigated landscapes, the loss of trees and shrubs is staggering. Sprinklers just can't keep up.

"There's been more plant loss this summer than in the worst freeze I can remember," one grower told me.

And all of this, of course, has nurseries licking their chops.

Drought boon?
With commercial building and new home construction down, the nursery business has been looking for something to spark demand. Many see this drought as a kick start.

But before you start planning for huge replacement-plant sales in 2012, you might want to consider the following: Yes, I've heard the stories of what happened after the 1984 freeze when virtually every nursery in the region sold out.

I just don't see that happening in 2012. The problem I see is that, for homeowners and businesses alike, discretionary dollars are hard to come by. If Joe Cul-de-sac loses a tree and a hedge in his front yard, he just might live with it for a few years before replacing them.

If Big Corporation on the Corner loses half its landscape, will it get replacement money through the gauntlet of corporate accountants? If Nice Little Municipality has a dead streetscape, is it going to a replace it or think, "If we replant trees, are they just going to die again?"

Proceed with caution
I'm not saying that all this loss of plants will not increase demand. It will. I just think it's going to be a slower process than most people think. Hurricane Katrina recovery didn't yield a huge cache of replacement plant money immediately after the storm.

So pray for Texans and Okies to get plenty of rain in the next 12 months. And pray they'll replace all their dead plants.