In wake of recovery, don’t stop adapting

Fresh off of my first round of 2011 winter travel, I come bearing good news.

No, convention-center facilities personnel aren’t any nicer, and the food at these venues remains tasteless. But I’m happy to say that the nursery market is correcting itself.

I base this on dozens of interviews with growers I trust to give me straight-up answers (and a few that I know will blow smoke, but I still like them anyway).

The best piece of information I can relate is that propagators, across the board, are reporting increased sales over 2011. Liner producers tell me that bookings are up, and that’s huge news.

This tells me that the large glut of nursery product we faced in 2010 is dwindling. Old material has been dumped and replaced with freshly planted liners.

And now that things are looking up for this first rung of the nursery food chain, growers of finished product will follow suit. I spoke with several nurseries that have seen market corrections take place. In response they’re raising prices back to pre-2010 levels.
 

Be smart this time
But I know what many are saying. “Todd, you’re nuts. There’s market uncertainty. There are still huge bankruptcy cases pending that will have big negative impacts on the nursery industry.”

True, every shoe has yet to fall. Let me steal a line from a gentleman wiser than me.

“There are still some companies out there that are out of business, but they just don’t know it yet.”

Will we suddenly be the Roaring 1990s again? No. Is there still fallout to come? Yes.

But we are set to make big improvements, and we’re going to be smarter this year. 
 

Be lean, be agile
In 2011 we’ll know our core customers better. We’ll know what they need and when they’re going to need it. 

We’ll know our competition better. We’ll know their strengths, their weaknesses and what their plans are for 2011.

And we’ll know ourselves. We’ll know what we’re capable of and we’ll set reasonable goals and budgets. We’re going to right-size our businesses and our inventory.

We’ll grow and sell the correct balance of new/specialty plants and old favorites/commodities. We’re going to set our prices based on what the market dictates, and by all indications, that means higher than last year.

Go get ‘em, and have a great, busy spring season.